Trouble in Syria and Peace in Lebanon

I put up a similar piece several weeks ago. While your take is negative on the “option” of an assault on Syria, however, mine is that of cautious optimism…very cautious optimism.

My positive attitude towards such a hit stems from my being in Lebanon and having witnessed first hand the Syrian dictatorship’s historical (and continuing) use of instruments of terror on my countrymen and women. The argument, which I’m neither wholly convinced of nor willing to completely disregard, is that a hit on Syria would dislodge the assassin-regime there and provide the Lebanese with a respite from the ongoing assault on the state and the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority we’ve been subject to. Any negative fallout from the hit could be limited to Syria – and not Lebanon – by the fact that the dislodging of the regime would free those pro-Syrian elements active in the country from the obligation to go down with the sinking regime’s ship and realign with the more US-friendly political movements. This argument, holds most true for the Christians among the pro-Syrian ranks. For the Shiites, there will continue to be Hizballah – fully armed, trained, and funded from Iran – but they would surely find an untrusting partner in Amal and its leader Nabih Berri, who is a political chamellion well-acquainted with the business of realignment.

As for extremist Sunni groups present in Lebanon, there is a danger that turmoil in Syria would provide a magnet for global jihadists. In Lebanon, however, the presence of such groups has, for the most part, been an integral strategy of the Syrian regime’s strategy for interfering in our internal affairs. Generally, the strategy is made up of creating instability in Lebanon and then “coming to our aide”. A dislodgement of the Syrian regime would provide a break in the central nervous system coordinating these groups across the country, allowing the Lebanese Army to (hopefully) finish them off one at a time.

Anyway, its a risky move, thats for sure, and yes it is absolutely part of the build up towards eventually knocking off Iran. But from the standpoint of a Lebanese who is tired of seeing his country being used as a limb of Iran’s regional policy (through Hizballah) and as a playground for Syria’s looting and assissinating intelligence agencies and regime, it might just be worth the risk.

On another note, I’m always interested in engaging people with varying opinions on the web. If you’re interested in a blog links exchange, feel free to email me at blacksmithsoflebanon@gmail.com

Cheers!