Comments on: NEWS & ANALYSIS & EDITOR’S COMMENT: Let’s push up the price of oil http://warincontext.org/2008/07/01/news-analysis-editors-comment-lets-push-up-the-price-of-oil/ ... with attention to the unseen Wed, 23 May 2012 19:49:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Yigal Arens http://warincontext.org/2008/07/01/news-analysis-editors-comment-lets-push-up-the-price-of-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2356 Yigal Arens Wed, 02 Jul 2008 17:42:27 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=1166#comment-2356 With all the attack threats, implied and overt, that Israel has been issuing against Iran, wouldn't Iran be justified in preemptively attacking Israel? I mean, it makes no sense for Iran to just sit around and wait until Israel was good and ready to bomb them. They may consider it better to set the time for a conflict with Israel when *they* find it convenient. A doctrine of preemptive war works both ways... With all the attack threats, implied and overt, that Israel has been issuing against Iran, wouldn’t Iran be justified in preemptively attacking Israel? I mean, it makes no sense for Iran to just sit around and wait until Israel was good and ready to bomb them. They may consider it better to set the time for a conflict with Israel when *they* find it convenient.

A doctrine of preemptive war works both ways…

]]> By: G Hazeltine http://warincontext.org/2008/07/01/news-analysis-editors-comment-lets-push-up-the-price-of-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2346 G Hazeltine Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:46:19 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=1166#comment-2346 A little more on the issues raised by Millennium Challenge 2002: A longer article on the Millennium Challenge exercise: http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/020906-iraq1.htm Some information on various anti-ship missiles, some, or their variants, known to be deployed by the Iranians, perhaps in large numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silkworm_missile http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-802 Why in the confined waters of the Gulf being prepared for an attack by these missiles might not matter. See page six of the following: http://www.ausairpower.net/ascms.pdf A long and well sourced paper on the history and current scope of Iranian asymmetric naval warfare doctrine and capabilities, from the Marshall Center: http://www.marshallcenter.org/site-graphic/lang-de/page-coll-research-1/static/xdocs/research/static/occpapers/occ-paper_10-en.pdf The US failed utterly to find, much less destroy Iraq's scud missiles. The Israelis failed utterly to suppress Hezbollah's rocket fire in 2006. The Iranians are known to manufacture the Noor missile, a possibly upgraded version of the C-802, with a range sufficient to turn most of the Gulf into a kill zone, and have had years prepare for conflict in the Gulf. There is little reason to suppose that their capabilities will be any more susceptible to countermeasures than Iraq's scuds or Hezbollah's rockets. If they are not suppressed the consequences to US naval forces in the Gulf will be very grave. Add to this the small boats, the mines, and other Iranian capabilities - and the clear lessons of the Millennium Challenge exercise - one wonders why the threat to the large number of American warships stationed in the Persian Gulf receives so little attention. A little more on the issues raised by Millennium Challenge 2002:

A longer article on the Millennium Challenge exercise:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/020906-iraq1.htm

Some information on various anti-ship missiles, some, or their variants, known to be deployed by the Iranians, perhaps in large numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silkworm_missile
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-802

Why in the confined waters of the Gulf being prepared for an attack by these missiles might not matter. See page six of the following:

http://www.ausairpower.net/ascms.pdf

A long and well sourced paper on the history and current scope of Iranian asymmetric naval warfare doctrine and capabilities, from the Marshall Center:

http://www.marshallcenter.org/site-graphic/lang-de/page-coll-research-1/static/xdocs/research/static/occpapers/occ-paper_10-en.pdf

The US failed utterly to find, much less destroy Iraq’s scud missiles. The Israelis failed utterly to suppress Hezbollah’s rocket fire in 2006. The Iranians are known to manufacture the Noor missile, a possibly upgraded version of the C-802, with a range sufficient to turn most of the Gulf into a kill zone, and have had years prepare for conflict in the Gulf. There is little reason to suppose that their capabilities will be any more susceptible to countermeasures than Iraq’s scuds or Hezbollah’s rockets. If they are not suppressed the consequences to US naval forces in the Gulf will be very grave. Add to this the small boats, the mines, and other Iranian capabilities – and the clear lessons of the Millennium Challenge exercise – one wonders why the threat to the large number of American warships stationed in the Persian Gulf receives so little attention.

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