Comments on: The tipping point in Iran http://warincontext.org/2009/12/29/the-tipping-point-in-iran/ ... with attention to the unseen Thu, 24 May 2012 19:19:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Paul Woodward http://warincontext.org/2009/12/29/the-tipping-point-in-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-7104 Paul Woodward Fri, 01 Jan 2010 19:38:17 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=2673#comment-7104 Predicting the future is a risky business but there are significant differences between now and the past. The opposition movement is no longer simply made up of a Westernized and disaffected urban elite. It cuts across the social spectrum and it is not confined to Tehran. In earlier protests no one would have dared shout "death to the dictator" or trample on pictures of Khamenei. The police never got chased. Convicts were never rescued from the gallows. The past is not the present. Does anyone know what the outcome will be? Of course not -- but I wouldn't bet on Khamenei and Ahmadinejad riding this out. The Revolutionary Guard is not monolithic and in the long run there isn't a single political faction that can believe it will be able to indefinitely thwart the will of the people. When Khamenei bussed in his supporters on Wednesday everyone knows he couldn't have simply named a time and a place and hoped that people would have shown up in sufficient numbers. "Live free or die" is what they say in New Hampshire. In Iran this is what it has literally come to mean to be a demonstrator. Predicting the future is a risky business but there are significant differences between now and the past. The opposition movement is no longer simply made up of a Westernized and disaffected urban elite. It cuts across the social spectrum and it is not confined to Tehran.

In earlier protests no one would have dared shout “death to the dictator” or trample on pictures of Khamenei. The police never got chased. Convicts were never rescued from the gallows.

The past is not the present.

Does anyone know what the outcome will be? Of course not — but I wouldn’t bet on Khamenei and Ahmadinejad riding this out.

The Revolutionary Guard is not monolithic and in the long run there isn’t a single political faction that can believe it will be able to indefinitely thwart the will of the people.

When Khamenei bussed in his supporters on Wednesday everyone knows he couldn’t have simply named a time and a place and hoped that people would have shown up in sufficient numbers.

“Live free or die” is what they say in New Hampshire. In Iran this is what it has literally come to mean to be a demonstrator.

]]> By: b http://warincontext.org/2009/12/29/the-tipping-point-in-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-7075 b Tue, 29 Dec 2009 20:29:35 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=2673#comment-7075 Haven't we heard predictions of the demise of Iran's system for 20 years? Yes: http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2009/12/irans-second-revolution.html Haven’t we heard predictions of the demise of Iran’s system for 20 years?

Yes:
http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2009/12/irans-second-revolution.html

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