http://warincontext.org/2010/01/03/irans-younger-smarter-revolution/ ... with attention to the unseen Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:49:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://warincontext.org/2010/01/03/irans-younger-smarter-revolution/comment-page-1/#comment-7125 eatbees Mon, 04 Jan 2010 20:02:24 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=2722#comment-7125 An interesting contrast between two points of view. I find Sahimi's article to be more serious-minded. I doubt it's possible to have a free-form revolution based on twitter feeds and poetry. Calling a movement "inherently victorious" won't make it so. Even if the majority in Iran now favors the opposition, I suspect that the majority of that majority doesn't want to go through yet another social upheaval like 1979. What's needed is a stepwise transition to a more open system, not revolution in the streets. The street movement has a right to keep the pressure on, but overstepping will lead to a crackdown and civil chaos. Meanwhile, by destiny of geography, Iran must play a careful game in the face of conflicting pressures from Russia, China, the Arab world and the West. This requires continuity and experienced hands at the helm. The under-30 crowd may be the majority, but they can't do it on their own. A coalition with some faction of existing leadership is needed. An interesting contrast between two points of view. I find Sahimi’s article to be more serious-minded. I doubt it’s possible to have a free-form revolution based on twitter feeds and poetry. Calling a movement “inherently victorious” won’t make it so. Even if the majority in Iran now favors the opposition, I suspect that the majority of that majority doesn’t want to go through yet another social upheaval like 1979. What’s needed is a stepwise transition to a more open system, not revolution in the streets. The street movement has a right to keep the pressure on, but overstepping will lead to a crackdown and civil chaos. Meanwhile, by destiny of geography, Iran must play a careful game in the face of conflicting pressures from Russia, China, the Arab world and the West. This requires continuity and experienced hands at the helm. The under-30 crowd may be the majority, but they can’t do it on their own. A coalition with some faction of existing leadership is needed.

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