Comments on: The Iranian riddle http://warincontext.org/2010/03/08/the-iranian-riddle/ ... with attention to the unseen Thu, 24 May 2012 19:47:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Lysander http://warincontext.org/2010/03/08/the-iranian-riddle/comment-page-1/#comment-7902 Lysander Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:29:38 +0000 http://warincontext.org/?p=3804#comment-7902 Given that there have been multiple polls showing that Iranians overwhelmingly view the June elections as valid and given that, as of now, no proof at all has been given of fraud, stuffed or stolen ballot boxes, etc. it is surprising that many people base there analysis on the assumption that the Iranian government is reeling and confused. Especially, when Iran's actions have been crystal clear from day one. Either swap Uranium on our soil under conditions where we can be sure we will get it back, or we will make it ourselves. Almost certainly Iran's plan from the beginning was to put the west in that position. Either agree to the trade and give defacto recognition of Iranian enrichment, or refuse and provide the excuse Iran needs to step up its enrichment program. Faced with that predicament, the US choose poorly. Constructing a swap proposal wherein Iran has to rely on French, Russian and American good will to get the Uranium it needs and thinking it would appear reasonable and help them get sanctions in place. How's that working so far? By contrast Iran acted resolutely. Not with confusion and division. They have advanced their program and have paid no cost for doing so. That doesn't look like indecision to me. Next, they will offer to buy the fuel plates. If no one sells, guess what? They will fashion it them themselves. And don't believe the hype that they can't do it. They said the same about 20% enrichment. In fact it looks like Iran has a plan and the west has yet to find an effective counter. Arnold Evans gives a very good analysis here; http://mideastreality.blogspot.com/2010/02/nuclear-chess-iran-executes-fork-us.html Given that there have been multiple polls showing that Iranians overwhelmingly view the June elections as valid and given that, as of now, no proof at all has been given of fraud, stuffed or stolen ballot boxes, etc. it is surprising that many people base there analysis on the assumption that the Iranian government is reeling and confused.

Especially, when Iran’s actions have been crystal clear from day one. Either swap Uranium on our soil under conditions where we can be sure we will get it back, or we will make it ourselves.

Almost certainly Iran’s plan from the beginning was to put the west in that position. Either agree to the trade and give defacto recognition of Iranian enrichment, or refuse and provide the excuse Iran needs to step up its enrichment program.

Faced with that predicament, the US choose poorly. Constructing a swap proposal wherein Iran has to rely on French, Russian and American good will to get the Uranium it needs and thinking it would appear reasonable and help them get sanctions in place.

How’s that working so far?

By contrast Iran acted resolutely. Not with confusion and division. They have advanced their program and have paid no cost for doing so. That doesn’t look like indecision to me. Next, they will offer to buy the fuel plates. If no one sells, guess what? They will fashion it them themselves. And don’t believe the hype that they can’t do it. They said the same about 20% enrichment.

In fact it looks like Iran has a plan and the west has yet to find an effective counter.

Arnold Evans gives a very good analysis here;

http://mideastreality.blogspot.com/2010/02/nuclear-chess-iran-executes-fork-us.html

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