Hadi Kahalzadeh and John Schiemann write: The latest wave of sanctions against Iran comes into effect today. Such measures are largely predicated on a “rational actor model” in which the west hopes Iran’s leaders will eventually find it in their own interests to give up their nuclear programme. The problem with such a strategy is not that Iran’s leaders are irrational but that such a game only works if the west knows how Iran evaluates costs and benefits and the options Iran believes it has available.
After the failure of previous sanctions, the west has imposed a new set of much tougher sanctions while Iran has adopted a more assertive stance vis-a-vis the west, stating that it will respond to economic and military threats with its “own threats”. Why, then, has Iran failed to respond to international pressure?
According to the basic sanctions model, the target of sanctions will alter its behaviour in the desired direction when the costs of defiance become greater than its perceived costs of compliance. Yet despite Iran’s reliance on oil, the structural weakness of its economy, and deep economic costs such as the sharp rise in inflation, negative economic growth and increasing unemployment, it has failed to bend. This should prompt policymakers to ask how Iran evaluates the costs of sanctions and defying the west. [Continue reading…]
How about sanctioning Israel to give up its mad junk yard dog attitude so the M.E. can get on with building out its potential? It might also help to keep the meddling western powers out of there too.
These writers are quite right. Iran is offering its neighbours an object lesson. Its regime offers the best model for resisting US imperialism.
Iran isn’t going to buckle. They know their rights under the NPT, and they won’t give up until they secure them. It’ll be Europe that starts screaming about having to comply with US demands to stop importing Iranian oil — especially while 20 other countries have received special dispensation. When that happens, Washington will look pretty silly.
I agree wholeheartedly with you, Norman. It’s Israel that has to be brought to heel. But that’s not going to happen while Bibi is in office and AIPAC has the prez by the balls.
The Guardian is assuming that Iran has/wants nukes. Iran is acting legally, unlike the others whose threats are already a war crime. I agree with the coments about Israel, the real nuke threat.
Iran will eventually wind up becoming western Europe and the United States’ safety valve. As the economies in the West begin to crumble via, among other things, the larceny of Wall Street and their cohorts in government; Iran will provide an urgent and tragic distraction as we impose death dealing sanctions and begin to drop bombs on the most vulnerable people: women, children, the aged and the infirm.
A very important clue to the looming holocaust, among other clues: Germany providing Israel with submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles. Why, exactly, did the German government do that? Why does Israel need more nuclear capability? I do not believe any of this will end well.