Iran seems an unlikely culprit for the attacks on Israeli diplomats

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam writes: Let’s assume that sections of the military and security apparatus in Iran are responsible for the string of bombings in Georgia, Thailand and India. What would be the motive? The argument that Iran is retaliating for the murder of five civilian nuclear scientists in Iran is not plausible. If Iran wanted to target Israeli interests, it has other means at its disposal. It is hard to imagine that the Iranian government would send Iranian operatives to friendly countries, completely equipped with Iranian money and passports – making the case against them as obvious as possible.

If the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are as professional, highly trained and politically savvy as we have been told repeatedly by Israeli politicians themselves, if they have successfully trained and equipped the cadres of Hezbollah and other movements with paramilitary wings in the region, then why would they launch such a clumsy and self-defeating operation?

And why India, Georgia and Thailand, three countries that Iran has had cordial relations with during a period when Iran is facing increasing sanctions spearheaded by the United States? A few days ago, India agreed a rupee-based oil and gas deal with Iran and resisted US pressures to join the western boycott of the Iranian energy sector. As a net importer of 12% of Iranian oil, India’s total trade with Iran amounted to $13.67bn in 2010-2011. What would be the motive for damaging relations with one of Iran’s major trading partners and regional heavyweights?

For Iran it doesn’t make sense to risk alienating India by launching an assassination attempt in the capital of the country. Similarly, Iran has good economic and political relations with Georgia and Thailand. Why would the leadership in Tehran risk a major crisis with these countries during this sensitive period when IAEA inspectors are moving in and out of Iran to investigate the country’s nuclear programme?

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2 thoughts on “Iran seems an unlikely culprit for the attacks on Israeli diplomats

  1. Tom Hall

    My vote still goes to the Israelis, particularly since there have been no serious injuries to their personnel. I can’t see the Iranians being this clumsy and inept. They’re perfectly capable of carrying out lethal actions in a nasty, professional way. In this case, given that they’ve stayed their hand despite repeated bloody provocations by Mossad and the Americans, it makes no sense for them to blunder now into such travesties.
    The Iranians are determined to provide no triggering pretext for an attack by their enemies. Theirs is a disciplined intelligence service and I can’t imagine them acting to implicate themselves in this way. But such headlines serve very well the propaganda aims of the Western media in preparing the US and European public for a war which has already been decided.
    As for the unfortunates roped in by these plots, whatever their nationality, they probably didn’t even know for whom they were actually working. Recent reports have established that Mossad recruits saboteurs and terrorists by claiming to be American intelligence. Why not pretend to be Revolutionary Guards?

  2. Ritu Chaudhry

    There have been some utterly fascinating outpourings of bile against India in WSJ…including one that is called “Iran’s Indian Enablers”.

    It is one thing to follow international politics and see the sleights of hand that create a fog of war. Yet another to see such weasly articles directed against your country….the latter are far more instructive because you are in a position to spot every single lie and misdirection.

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