Along with the Arctic ice, the rich world’s smugness will melt

George Monbiot writes: There are no comparisons to be made. This is not like war or plague or a stockmarket crash. We are ill-equipped, historically and psychologically, to understand it, which is one of the reasons why so many refuse to accept that it is happening.

What we are seeing, here and now, is the transformation of the atmospheric physics of this planet. Three weeks before the likely minimum, the melting of Arctic sea ice has already broken the record set in 2007. The daily rate of loss is now 50% higher than it was that year. The daily sense of loss – of the world we loved and knew – cannot be quantified so easily.

The Arctic has been warming roughly twice as quickly as the rest of the northern hemisphere. This is partly because climate breakdown there is self-perpetuating. As the ice melts, for example, exposing the darker sea beneath, heat that would previously have been reflected back into space is absorbed.

This great dissolution, of ice and certainties, is happening so much faster than most climate scientists predicted that one of them reports: “It feels as if everything I’ve learned has become obsolete.” In its last assessment, published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that “in some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century”. These were the most extreme forecasts in the panel’s range. Some scientists now forecast that the disappearance of Arctic sea-ice in late summer could occur in this decade or the next.

As I’ve warned repeatedly, but to little effect, the IPCC’s assessments tend to be conservative. This is unsurprising when you see how many people have to approve them before they are published. There have been a few occasions – such as its estimate of the speed at which glaciers would be lost in the Himalayas – on which the panel has overstated the case. But it looks as if these will be greatly outnumbered by the occasions on which the panel has understated it. [Continue reading…]

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1 thought on “Along with the Arctic ice, the rich world’s smugness will melt

  1. Chip Nihk

    ” There have been a few occasions – such as its estimate of the speed at which glaciers would be lost in the Himalayas – on which the panel has overstated the case.”

    ‘Overstated’ is hardly the word. IPCC blatantly lied about the Himalayas with zero basis in research, as do the 501(c)3 drones who propagandize for it, because it brings in more m-o-n-e-y. It’s called ‘post-normal’ science, when your ‘laboratory’ is a google-plex multivariant system, and you’re trying to pin everything on AGW, then you … umm, lie!

    But the Big Lie, the REAL Big Lie, is that carbon tithe-taxing all of humanity will have even the slightest effect on ‘warming’ (sic) … other than shoving 3 or 4 billion humans back into the Stone Age, while logging off the rest of the old-growth tropical forest for GMO biofuels for the industrial nationals to salve their Calvinist conscience.

    The REAL Big Lie is IPCC-ICEs willful disregard for the consequences of a tithe-tax, and for the Fundamentalist Scienctocratic monster that tithe-tax will create, a fundamentalism so extreme, that it will make Mao or Stalin look like panty-waists.

    Go ahead, deny it. You know you want to.

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