Issandr El Amrani writes: Some of the military officers who have risen to prominence after the recent shuffle/purge/power grab in the senior ranks of the Egyptian military are pretty unknown. The military is an isolated institution, and only a few of its members became very public figures over the last year and a half. There have been many rumors that the new top honchos are American favorites, chiefly on the spurious ground that they have been in contact with the US in the past. The truth is we don’t know much about them, or specifically how they feel about the United States.
Wouldn’t it be nice if one of these guys had written, say, a 10,000 word essay on his views of the future of US strategy in the Middle East?
Well it turns out one of them — no less than Sedky Sobhy, the new Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, the number two in the hierarchy — did just that while studying in a military school in the US, as many Egyptian officers do. And he’s written a rather thoughtful essay advocating for one of my pet causes: a complete US military withdrawal from the Middle East. It’s titled “THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE INTHE MIDDLE EAST: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS” and was carried out as part of a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College in 2005, when he was Brigadier General. It’s available on a US army website.
Here’s the basic gist from his conclusion:
The future challenges and prospects ofthe U.S. military presence inthe Middle East in general and Gulf in particular are inseparable from the overall U.S. national security strategy in this region. This national security strategy cannot define the issues within the narrow geographic context of the Gulf region and its oil resources, or the narrow confines of rather outdated “containment” concepts. It is this author’s opinion that the security challenges for the U.S. interests inthe Middle East and the Gulf, including Iraq, are interlinked with the ideological foundations that underpin these challenges. The solutions of security challenges inthe Gulf will not necessarily be solely found in Baghdad or in the Gulf itself. These solutions will find their ideological underpinning ifthe U.S. were to truly work for a permanent settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The U.S. can continue to pursue its current strategy in the Gulf that is largely based on its U.S. military presence and potential. This strategy will not lead to the solution of political problems that are deeply rooted in ideological, religious, and cultural causes. The U.S. and its willing partners will continue to be immersed in a long-term asymmetric military conflict without clear political and ideological goals. Truly international cooperation, and heeding the ideological, religious, and cultural concerns of the Arab and Muslim world, can successfully change the current course of events.
I don’t agree with everything but I like the way he thinks. [Continue reading…]
The Associated Press reports: Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi will attend a summit in Iran later this month, a presidential official said on Saturday, the first such trip for an Egyptian leader since relations with Tehran deteriorated decades ago.
The visit could mark a thaw between the two countries after years of enmity, especially since Egypt signed its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and Iran underwent its Islamic revolution. Under Morsi’s predecessor Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, predominantly Sunni Muslim, sided with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-dominated Arab states in trying to isolate Shiite-led Iran.
The official said that Morsi will visit Tehran on Aug. 30 on his way back from China to attend the Non-Aligned Movement Summit, where Egypt will transfer the movement’s rotating leadership to Iran. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not yet authorized to make the announcement.
The trip is no surprise — it came days after Morsi included Iran in a proposal for a contact group to mediate an end to Syria’s escalating civil war. The proposal for the group, which includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, was made at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Mecca.
The idea was welcomed by Iran’s state-run Press TV, and a leading member of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood said that Tehran’s acceptance of the proposal was a sign Egypt was beginning to regain some of the diplomatic and strategic clout it once held in the region.
After the fall of Egypt’s longtime strongman Hosni Mubarak in a popular uprising last year, officials have expressed no desire to maintain Mubarak’s staunch anti-Iranian stance.
Last July, former Egyptian foreign minister Nabil Elaraby, who also heads the Arab League, delivered a conciliatory message to the Islamic Republic, saying “Iran is not an enemy,” and noted that post-Mubarak Egypt would seek to open a new page with every country in the world, including Iran.
Al-Masry Al-Youm reports: President Mohamed Morsy is studying whether to amend the Camp David Accords to ensure Egypt’s full sovereignty and control over every inch of Sinai, said Mohamed Gadallah, legal adviser to the president.
Calls for amending the peace treaty with Israel, which also governs the security presence in the Sinai Peninsula, have been on the rise since last week’s attack on a military checkpoint at the border left 16 Egyptian security officers dead.
Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi called for the amendments Saturday. The Revolutionary Youth Union has filed a lawsuit before an administrative court demanding that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel be amended.
Morsy has vowed several times since he took office to preserve international treaties that Egypt has signed.
Gadallah didn’t give more details on the issue while speaking to Al-Masry Al-Youm Monday. He added that Morsy would soon order the release of another batch of military detainees.
David Hearst writes: While Syria’s civil war dominates the world’s attention, less dramatic and telegenic events in Egypt retain the power to decide if popular uprisings will succeed in establishing a democratic alternative to tyranny in the Arab world.
Something of that magnitude has just happened in Cairo. Arguably it is just as significant as the ousting of Hosni Mubarak in February last year. The system was decapitated but continued in the form of the military council, which assumed transitional rule. On Sunday the heads of that system, which has dominated Egypt for decades, were toppled – apparently with its acquiescence.
Morsi got rid of the man who was expected to replace Tantawi – the army chief of staff, Sami Enan – as well as the leader of every service of the armed forces. Tantawi’s replacement, the head of military intelligence Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi, will now report to Morsi himself, not to Scaf. Further, Morsi annulled the constitutional power grab that Scaf made on the second day of the presidential election in June, which gave the military a right of veto over the new constitution that is in the process of being drawn up.
Accused by the left and liberals of political weakness, of cohabiting with the military, the Muslim Brotherhood president today stands accused of the opposite contention – accruing too much power. And it is true, that in assuming for himself the power Scaf had to appoint a new constituent assembly should the current one writing the constitution fail to agree, the Egyptian president now has the powers of a Russian one. But Morsi is no Vladimir Putin. [Continue reading…]
Issandr El Amrani argues that it is too soon to determine where the new balance of power now lies: It is hard to believe that the timing of moves by Egypt’s president, Mohamed Morsi, to purge senior officers from the military and impose his power was purely coincidental. It was the 23rd day of Ramadan, the evening of the Night of Power, during which the Qur’an was first revealed to the Prophet Muhammad.
The Qur’an states that the Night of Power “is better than a thousand months” – this seems apt considering that these changes seemingly put an end to many months of confusion about where power lies in the new Egypt.
But is it for the better? And where does power lie now?
Within the military, it is clear that the new figure of power is Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi, formerly head of military intelligence and now the minister of defence.
Considerably younger that Hussein Tantawi, the ageing general he replaced who was first appointed by Hosni Mubarak in 1992, Sissi brings with him several younger officers. His ascension puts an end to a months-long power struggle over who is in control of the military.
The lack of an immediate challenge to Sunday’s moves suggests that, essentially, there has been a successful coup within the military, in alliance with Morsi. We also know this new military leadership is willing to give Morsi the powers their predecessors had refused him – Morsi could not have regained control without their help. This speaks not of a triumphant civilian president getting the generals in line, but of a confluence of interests. It does not tell us whether it will last, or where the balance of power lies. [Continue reading…]
Al-Masry Al-Youm reports: “Breaking: Mohamed Morsy is the president of the Egyptian Republic,” said activists on social media websites jokingly as an expression of Morsy’s assertion of power after catching the country off guard by sending the head of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff Sami Anan to retirement Sunday.
In an unprecedented reshuffle of the 19-member SCAF, Morsy replaced Tantawi, who has been defense minister for 22 years, with current Military Intelligence Chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi who was promoted two ranks and now heads the ministry and the armed forces, the presidency’s spokesperson Yasser Ali announced on Sunday. The president also promoted Sidqy Sobhy, the third field army leader to be the military chief of staff, while Mohamed al-Assar was appointed as deputy defense minister. Additionally, Head of Naval Forces Mohab Mamish was assigned as leader of the Suez Canal Authority.
Political and military experts say that Morsy’s radical decision to cast aside Tantawi and Anan, who remained on top of the military institution for decades, indicates that the president is consolidating his power over the military establishment in a tactful manner, without necessarily ending the legacy of the military state. For one, the promotion of second rank military officers is considered a tactical move to preempt any possible opposition from the army, they argue.
“It’s a takeover of military rule rather than the end of military rule. This is another phase of authoritarian rule,” says Robert Springborg, a professor at the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on the Egyptian military institution.
“The military is now serving as an instrument for the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsy’s move institutionalizes normal civilian control over the military,” he added.
Springborg argues that “the way it was done indicates that the Brothers have a plan from before” and that last week’s attack on Egypt’s border with Gaza and Israel in Sinai paved the way for the move.
Sixteen Egyptian soldiers were killed by armed men on 6 August at the Egyptian border with Gaza and Israel. The attack fueled criticism of the lack of military readiness and a failing state in the strategic peninsula.
As a result, Morsy replaced intelligence chief Mourad Mowafy with Abdel Wahed Shehata and appointed Hamed Zaki as head of the presidential guard, while North Sinai Governor Abdel Wahab Mabrouk has been sacked from his post along with the head of the Central Security Forces. Furthermore, Hamdi Badin, commander of the military police, was also removed from his position.
Morsy had to first guarantee authority over the Presidential Guard and Central Security Forces to defend the president against any street riots that might take place as a reaction to the military leaders shuffle, Springborg told Egypt Independent. “They [Muslim Brothers] prepared the ground.”
Professor Emad Shahin, who teaches political science at the American University in Cairo and who specializes in Islamist movements, also thought the reshuffling was well calculated by Morsy. “The reshuffling is very smart, as it avoids escalation and ensures the loyalty of the military establishment. Now the military institution is under the authority of the elected president,” said Shahin. He agreed with Springborg that the Sinai attacks “served Morsy” as he is viewed as reacting strongly by holding security officials accountable. [Continue reading…]
After a period in which the possibility of civilian rule in Egypt appeared to be severely constrained by the military’s unwillingness to yield power, Morsi’s move looks like a major step in Egypt’s transition towards full-fledged democracy — unless, that is, you’re an Islamophobic Israeli. Barry Rubin, who seems convinced that this time the sky really is falling, writes: “This is a coup. Mursi is bound by no constitution. He can do as he pleases unless someone is going to stop him. And the only candidate — the military — is fading fast, far faster than even we pessimists would have predicted.”
Marc Lynch writes: After long weeks of political gridlock and stagnation, Egypt’s elected President Mohammed el-Morsi suddenly hit the gas over the weekend. Over the span of a few days, Morsi removed the head of General Intelligence, the head of the Military Police, the top two senior leaders of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the heads of all the military services. In addition to this SCAF-Quake, Morsi also canceled the controversial Constitutional amendments promulgated by the SCAF just before he took office and issued a new, equally controversial amendment and roadmap of his own. What’s more, this all came after he replaced the editors of major state-owned newspapers with people viewed as sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood and cracked down on several other critical papers. Zero to 180 in three days — even Usain Bolt would be impressed by that acceleration. Swirv.
What does it all mean? It’s a bit of a cop-out, but really it’s too soon to tell. As always in Egypt, information is both scarce and abundant. Nobody really knows what’s going on, rumors of every variety fly fast and furious, and everyone has pieced together plausible-sounding theories based on their fears or analytical predispositions. (Remember, though, as a rule it’s almost never as bad as it seems on Twitter.) It will take a while for the full implications to become clear. Eventually, more reliable information will trickle out about what really happened: were Tantawi and Anan consulted, or did they find out on TV? did junior officers collude with the Presidents office, or were they equally surprised? And the behavior of key actors in the coming weeks will shed light on their intentions this weekend: does Morsi move to impose an Islamist vision or reach out to create a broadly based constitutional convention? does the military strike back in some form? Until then, just about everyone — in Cairo, in Washington, and everywhere else — is struggling to pierce through the haze and make out what they can.
Taking that uncertainty into account, I can see at least three dominant takes on what’s going on. Those who believe the SCAF remains fully in control see a clever scheme to cement long-term military rule in alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood by gently dumping the unpopular figureheads while retaining an institutional hold on power. Those who fear the Muslim Brotherhood see the makings of a full-scale Ikhwanization of Egypt, with Morsi seizing dictatorial powers, brushing aside the secular bastion of the SCAF, and putting himself in place to shape the new constitution. And those who still see the prospect for some kind of real democratic transition can find some comfort in an elected President removing the senior leaders of the outgoing military junta without a bloody fight and asserting the principle of political control by an elected President. None of these three strikes me as completely right and all probably have some elements of truth.
Al Jazeera reports: Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s president, has dismissed the head of the armed forces and defence minister, Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, according to the country’s state news agency.
President Mohammed Morsi also appointed a senior judge, Mahmoud Mekki, as vice president.
The decisions announced Sunday are effective immediately.
Al Jazeera’s correspondent, Sherine Tadros, reporting from Cairo, said the president’s spokesperson made the surprising announcement on state television.
“The other shock announcement was ‘the retiring’ of Sami Enan, the chief of staff.
“There will be a lot of questions asked, especially if Morsi is able to do this,” our correspondent said.
“In the coming hours, we will find out how this decision came about. All of this has happened very fast, and it was unexpected.”
Spokesman Yasser Ali said in a news conference aired on state TV that Morsi appointed a new defense minister, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi.
He replaces Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, who headed the military council that ruled Egypt for 17 months after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in February 2011.
Tantawi was defense minister for nearly two decades under Mubarak. The military council’s No. 2, Chief of Staff Sami Annan, was also ordered to retire.
Reuters adds: The Egyptian president’s decision to order Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi to retire from his posts of defence minister and head of the armed forces was taken in consultation with him and the army council, a general said.
“The decision was based on consultation with the field marshal and the rest of the military council,” General Mohamed el-Assar told Reuters. In a reshuffle of the top brass announced on Sunday, Assar was appointed deputy defence minister.
President Mohamed Mursi said Tantawi and Chief of Staff Sami Enan had been ordered to retire and would become advisers to the president.
Issandr El Amrani notes: Inside Egypt, a nascent tug-of-war over who controls policy towards the Palestinians and Israel is starting between the presidency and the intelligence services. The question of national security is still in the army’s hands, and attacks such as these can be very effective wedge issues against an Egyptian-Hamas rapprochement (see for instance the 2009 raid by Gazans on the Rafah border.) The attack has effectively ended efforts to open up the Rafah crossing (eventually towards trade of goods, not just people traffic) for some time to come.
Fawaz Gerges writes: In response to last week’s border attack in the Sinai peninsula which murdered 16 Egyptian soldiers, today Egyptian military attack helicopters fired missiles on suspected Islamist militants in Sinai, reportedly killing 20. The air strikes on Tumah village – the military’s first in Sinai since Egypt’s 1973 war with Israel – were carried out as security forces massed near Rafah on the Palestinian Gaza border for what they called a decisive confrontation with the militants.
Without addressing Sinai’s severe social challenges, particularly a widespread feeling of neglect, discrimination and disfranchisement among its Bedouin population, the army’s tactics might exacerbate an already dangerous situation.
For the last two decades, the security situation in Sinai has rapidly deteriorated, fuelled by abject poverty, socioeconomic marginalisation and heavy-handed mistreatment of Bedouins, an ancient and proud community, by the Mubarak security apparatus. From the 1990s onwards, billions of US dollars were poured into developing the tourist industry in Sharm el-Sheik in south Sinai and the peninsula at large, with most jobs going to outsiders, not Bedouins. There was no trickle down to the local economy.
Similarly, Mubarak and his associates sold huge tracts of Sinai land to crony capitalists, angering Bedouins who felt excluded from the development of agricultural farms in their heartland.
Equally important, Mubarak unleashed his security thugs against restive Bedouins and humiliated and insulted their leaders, a sin that deepened the community’s resentment against the Cairo authorities. Over the years many Bedouins have told me of their grievances against the Mubarak regime, stressing economic exploitation of their land and disrespect for their code of honour and values.
While Mubarak’s fat cats made fortunes out of Sinai, 50% of Bedouins live in poverty, with few employment opportunities. For their survival, they depend on an underground economy, including smuggling of goods and arms to besieged Gaza, illegal African and Egyptian immigrants to Europe, and drugs. A growing lawlessness turned Sinai into an attractive destination for jihadis, fortune seekers, and criminals. [Continue reading…]
Reuters reports: Gaza Islamist leader Ismail Haniyeh met Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi on Thursday in an official visit that signaled a big shift in Cairo’s stance toward the Hamas movement after the election of a Muslim Brotherhood head of state in Egypt.
A Palestinian official said the head of Egyptian intelligence had promised measures to increase the flow of fuel supplied by Qatar to Gaza via Egypt and needed to ease the small Palestinian territory’s power shortages. The sides had also discussed increasing the flow of Palestinians across the border.
But there was no immediate sign that Cairo was ready to open up its border with Gaza to the extent sought by Hamas, something analysts partly attributed to the influence still wielded by the Hosni Mubarak-era security establishment.
“Mursi’s heart is with Hamas but his mind is elsewhere,” said Hany al-Masri, a Palestinian political commentator. “He will give them as much as he can but he won’t be able to give them much because his powers are restricted,” he said.
Mursi’s victory was celebrated in Gaza as a turning point for a territory whose economy has been choked by a blockade imposed by Israel and in which Egypt took part by stopping everything but a trickle of people from crossing the border.
But as head of state, Mursi must balance support for Gaza with the need to respect international commitments, including Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. “He will be very cautious,” said Mustapha Kamel Al-Sayyid, an Egyptian analyst. “The intelligence and the military will have their say on this.”
Magdi Abdelhadi writes: Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, has lived up to the worst expectations of him. He may be an experienced old cadre in the Muslim Brotherhood and a dogged parliamentarian, but his choice of prime minister confirms what many suspected: he lacks imagination and flare.
Worse still, he did not seem to have the guts to make a clean break with the old establishment. Perhaps he couldn’t. He has picked a minister from the outgoing cabinet for the post. This being the same cabinet he and his Islamist Justice and Freedom party campaigned against for months, but failed to force from office through a vote of no confidence.
If this is the best he could come up with after weeks of consultations, there’s little reason to get excited about who the new prime minister might select for his cabinet in what was supposed to be Egypt’s first “revolutionary government”.
One way in which Hisham Kandil has made history is by being the youngest man to hold the position of prime minister in the history of Egypt. Another first is that he sports a salafi beard. His facial hair has sparked speculation over whether he is in fact a closet Muslim Brother. But those who harbour such fears forget that the Brothers’ conservative ideology, along with the beard, had become mainstream in Egypt long before the revolution.
Kandil has already said he will keep some ministers from the outgoing government. Few believe it is actually him calling the shots. It’s out of the question that he will choose a new defence minister for example. That post will most likely be kept by the septuagenarian Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, who has been the not-so-much-behind-the scenes effective ruler of the country since the overthrow of Mubarak last year.
Many will be watching who gets picked to lead the second branch of the coercive machinery of the state, the interior ministry. If Kandil recycles an old police general, then Egypt will be firmly on track to reproduce the old policies that failed to solve its myriad problems, when they weren’t directly contributing to them. [Continue reading…]
The Associated Press reports: The head of Egypt’s military took a tough line Sunday on the Muslim Brotherhood, warning that he won’t let the fundamentalist group dominate the country, only hours after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged him to work with Egypt’s elected Islamist leaders.
Clinton’s visit to Egypt underscored the difficulty Washington faces in trying to wield its influence amid the country’s stormy post-Hosni Mubarak power struggles.
Islamist Mohammed Morsi, a longtime Brotherhood figure, was sworn two weeks ago as Egypt’s first democratically elected president. Led by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, the military handed over power to him June 30 after ruling Egypt for 16 months. The military, however, dissolved the Brotherhood-led parliament and stripped Morsi of significant authorities in the days before his inauguration, while retaining overwhelming powers for itself, including legislative power and control of the writing of a new constitution.
The United States is in a difficult spot when it comes to dealing with post-Mubarak Egypt — eager to be seen as a champion of democracy and human rights after three decades of close ties with the ousted leader despite his abysmal record in advancing either.
This has involved some uncomfortable changes, including occasional criticism of America’s longtime faithful partners in Egypt’s military as it grabs more power and words of support for Islamist parties far more skeptical of U.S. intentions in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East.
That has fueled accusations among some Egyptians who back the military or oppose Islamists that Washington is promoting the rise of the Brotherhood to power. Protesters chanting against the U.S. — sometimes reaching several hundred — have sprung up at several sites where Clinton visited this weekend. On Sunday, protesters threw tomatoes, water bottles and shoes at her motorcade as she left a ceremony marking the opening of a new U.S. consulate in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria.
Reuters reports: Egypt’s Islamist president said on Wednesday he wanted talks with the judiciary and political powers to defuse a crisis over him trying reinstate parliament in defiance of generals who dissolved it last month based on a court ruling.
Mohamed Mursi’s statement appeared to be a call for a truce to prevent the crisis, less than two weeks into his presidency, from boiling over into open confrontation with the military council or the judges in his battle to wrest power.
It was the latest twist in a legal wrangle that masks a broader struggle for control of the Arab world’s biggest nation that pits Mursi’s Muslim Brotherhood against a military that was in charge for six decades and an establishment still filled with officials from the era of ousted President Hosni Mubarak.
“There will be consultations among all political forces, institutions and the supreme council of judicial authorities to find the best way out of this situation in order to overcome this stage together,” Mursi’s statement said.
