Category Archives: Lebanon

ANALYSIS: The sparks of a conflagration

Ticking clocks and ‘accidental’ war
By Alastair Crooke, Conflicts Forum, October 14, 2007

Whilst Washington looks at the Iranian prospects through the prism of a binary, to bomb or to acquiesce decision, facing President Bush over the remainder of his presidency, the actors in the region see the conflict as imminent and arriving in a roundabout way, through the backdoor – either via escalation of Western and Israeli tension with Syria; or from events in Lebanon, or a combination of both interacting with each other. All these key actors are convinced that conflict, should it occur, will convulse the entire region. They see the Wursmer ‘engineered’ war that ultimately will extend to Iran, as almost upon them; and they wonder at the silence from Europe and from informed observers in the US. Is it, they speculate, that everyone is so focused on Iraq, and so convinced that Iraq will be the arena in which the decision on Iran will be shaped, that they have forgotten to attend to the backdoor that David Wurmser (until last month Dick Cheney’s Middle East adviser) already has a foot around? [complete article]

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NEWS: Can Lebanon avoid civil war?

Christian split in Lebanon raises specter of civil war
By Thanassis Cambanis, IHT, October 6, 2007

With the Islamist group Hezbollah having brought Lebanese politics to a standstill, the country’s once-dominant Christian community feels under siege and has begun re-establishing militias, training in the hills and stockpiling weapons.

Many Lebanese say another civil war – like the 15-year one that started in 1975 – is imminent and that the most dangerous flash points are within the divided Christian community.

Christian youth are signing up for militant factions in the greatest numbers since the end of the civil war, spray painting nationalist symbols on walls and tattooing them on their skin, and proclaiming their willingness to fight in a new civil war – in particular, against fellow Christians.

“When the war begins, I’ll be the first one in it,” said Fadil Abbas, 30, flexing his biceps in Shadow Tattoo as an artist etched a cross onto his shoulder. “I want everyone to know I am a Christian and I am ready to fight.”

The struggle is over who gets to be the next president, a post reserved for a Christian under Lebanon’s Constitution, and which must be filled by the end of November. But the larger question – one that is prompting rival Christian factions to threaten war – is whether Lebanese Christians must accept their minority status and get along with the Muslim majority (the choice of the popular Michel Aoun) or whether Christians should insist on special privileges no matter what their share of the population (the position of veteran civil war factions like the Phalange and the Lebanese Forces). [complete article]

Nasrallah calls on Saudi Arabia to boycott the upcoming Middle East conference
Syria Comment, October 6, 2007

Nasrallah gave the March 14 group 3 options:

1. Accept the Berri initiative where the opposition would accept a consensus president in return for dropping its demand for a unity government.
2. Amending the constitution one time only for a direct “one man one vote” for the president and drop the debate of “half+1” vs. “two thirds” (of votes in the parliament). This would sideline all the sectarian Zaiims and give power to the people.
3. Hire 5 scientific polling companies to survey the Lebanese public on all presidential nominees and accept the findings in the parliament as the next president of Lebanon. [complete article]

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NEWS: Nassrallah blames Israel for assassinations; Israel turns away wounded Palestinians

Nasrallah blames Israel for killings in Lebanon
Yoav Stern, Haaretz, October 5, 2007

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday accused Israel of killing anti-Syrian figures in Lebanon to cause strife and drag his militant movement into fighting other Lebanese communities.

In a televised speech broadcast to his supporters to mark “Al Quds” day, Nasrallah said Israel has a network of agents working in Lebanon who are responsible for the political killings.

Nasrallah, whose group leads the pro-Syrian opposition to Lebanon’s U.S.-backed government, also warned the parliamentary majority against picking a president of their own to run the country if talks with the opposition failed, and called for polling the general population on their choice if the lawmakers fail to reach agreement. [complete article]

Doctors: Only severely wounded Palestinians allowed into Israel
By Yuval Azoulay, Haaretz, October 5, 2007

Israel is allowing entry to only the most severly wounded Palestinians, and not to those at risk of losing limbs or suffering other debilitating handicaps, according to Physicians for Human Rights.

Hundreds of people were injured during the June clashes in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Fatah. However, only those whose lives were in danger were allowed into Israel for treatment. Others, whose injuries endangered “only” their quality of life, remained in the Gaza Strip for treatment, PHR wrote to the defense minister and the health minister.

Out of 44 requests to transfer injured individuals for treatment in Israel, 16 were refused by authorities in Israel, PHR said. In some cases, this meant physicians in Gaza had to amputate limbs because treatment was delayed too long. [complete article]

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NEWS: Hezbollah will avoid war; increases in popularity

Hezbollah won’t go into war with Israel if Syria, Iran attacked
Ya Libnan, October 2, 2007

Hezbollah stressed that it would not go into war with Israel if Syria and Iran were attacked by the Jewish state or the United States.

The stand was outlined by Hezbollah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan( right) in an interview with Naharnet.

Hajj Hassan also said reaching consensus on a presidential candidate is “the destiny of the Lebanese people and not a choice,” noting that Hezbollah has not announced its “official Candidate for the presidential office.” [complete article]

Hezbollah Regains Strength in Lebanon
AP, October 3, 2007

When 30,000 U.N. and Lebanese troops deployed across southern Lebanon at the end of last year’s Israel-Hezbollah war, the Islamic militant group’s presence shrank in the zone bordering Israeli and its influence seemed likely to diminish as well.

But more than a year later, Hezbollah appears to again be solidly entrenched across Lebanon’s south — looking, in fact, as if its fighters never really left but merely went underground.

The Shiite militia’s banners hang everywhere, boasting of the “divine victory” over Israel and thanking its chief sponsor, Shiite-majority Iran, for helping with post-war reconstruction. Villagers report the militia’s recruitment of young men is booming and its popularity is firm. [complete article]

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ANALYSIS: Elections in Lebanon

All power to the weak in Lebanon
By Sami Moubayed, Asia Times, September 27, 2007

Lebanon’s Parliament on Tuesday postponed the first stage in electing a new president after a Hezbollah boycott. If legislators do manage to complete the process – despite the mountainous obstacles – it will be the first real election in Lebanon since the country erupted into civil war in 1975.

Parliament’s 127 deputies will now vote next month on who should replace pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, whose term ends on November 23. Parliament has until then to finalize the issue, though there is disagreement over just how this should be done to get a new man in Baabda Palace.

Lebanese politics is sharply polarized into two camps, which refuse to back down. On another level, the contenders are divided Lebanon caught in a proxy war between the great powers. [complete article]

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NEWS: Lebanon car bombing

Car bomb near Beirut kills Christian lawmaker
By Nada Bakri and Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, September 20, 2007

A powerful car bomb in a Christian neighborhood just east of Beirut killed a Christian lawmaker from the governing coalition and six others Wednesday evening. It was the latest in a deadly string of bombings that have rocked Lebanon’s teetering political order as the country prepares to select a new president.

The bombing appeared to have deep political implications, giving credence to longstanding fears of a plot to eliminate the governing March 14 movement’s razor-thin majority in Parliament.

The bomb, apparently hidden inside a parked car in the Sin el Fil neighborhood, exploded just as the lawmaker, Antoine Ghanem of the Christian Phalange Party, drove past. The explosion ripped through the busy street, crushing cars and damaging buildings nearby, in a scene now eerily familiar in this politically tense city. [complete article]

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