Gamal Gasim writes: Only time will tell whether Friday’s deadly blasts in two mosques in the Yemeni capital were isolated attacks by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or whether the organisation is flexing its muscles with the assaults in Sanaa and in Tunisia’s capital Tunis.

For now, these attacks have again demonstrated the inability of the Houthi group – which lacks proper training as a police force – to provide security and enforce the rule of law in Sanaa and other areas that are under its control.

The continued political chaos and uncertainty is likely to increase the potential for violence.

The Houthis, together with the supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, may seize this political opportunity to mobilise people for a military and political expansion, probably in the direction of Taiz and Aden, where the Shia Houthis face a severe legitimacy crisis. [Continue reading…]

Safa AlAhmad writes: Last September, thousands of fighters from northern Yemen seized control of the country’s capital, Sanaa. The government was weak, its army fractured, and the rebels – called the Houthis – took the city in only four days.

The secretive Houthi movement was always a mystery to me.

I went to Yemen to follow them, to understand where they came from and what they want since they have suddenly become the most powerful people in Yemen.

I discovered a divided country. The Houthis who belong to the Zaidi sect- an offshoot of Shia Islam, still control the capital, but face a determined alliance of al-Qaeda and other Sunni militants further south.

Mass protests against the Houthis have been reported in some of Yemen’s largest cities. I encountered a very different mood – and a sense of the country fragmenting – as I crossed front lines and travelled the country speaking to the Houthis and their enemies.

During my first week in Sanaa, al-Qaeda bombs the main square, as the Houthis, in power for only a few weeks, are staging a rally.

“The power of the explosion threw people in the air,” a witness tells me when I arrive on the scene soon afterwards. “There were many dead children and old men. So many people.” A suicide bomber is blamed for the carnage.

The Houthi slogan is posted on walls across Sanaa. It’s an Iranian-inspired political chant from the days of that country’s 1979 revolution and reads: “God is great. Death to America. Death to Israel. God curse the Jews. Victory for Islam.”

They have established a so-called Revolutionary Committee, now the de facto government, which claims to be clamping down on corruption.

While in Sanaa, I stay with the family of my close friend Radiya, a human rights activist, and her father Dr Mohamed Al Mutawakil, a politician.

“Honestly, I think this is the worst phase Yemen has ever gone through,” Radiya tells me.

When I return to the city a few weeks later, the mood has changed. Houthi slogans are crossed out everywhere. [Continue reading…]

Nabeel Khoury writes: The Houthis are the largest Zaidi tribe in the northern Saada region of Yemen, abutting the Saudi border to the north. For years, the central government in Sanaa had marginalized the Houthis. Sunni Salafis from the north had meddled and proselytized the Zaidi tribe, which is an offshoot of Shia Islam. In 2004, the Houthi leader Hussein Badreddine Al-Houthi declined a summons to the capital by President Saleh. In response, Saleh sent troops to bring the Houthi leader by force, sparking off a six-year war that culminated in Saudi Arabia’s failed incursion into northern Yemen, in 2009 to 2010, to assist Saleh against the motley Houthi army.

At the time, the Houthi political movement was known as Al-Shabab Al-Mumin — the Believing Youth. Saleh had supported the Houthis until they adopted the slogan, ‘Death to America, Death to Israel,’ after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Houthi demands back then were regional and sectarian: They wanted some autonomy within their region, to run their schools and mosques as they saw fit. They also wanted to see a fair share of the national budget spent on projects in their governorate.

After years of fighting a larger more organized army, the Houthis transformed from a regional ragtag militia into the most effective fighting force in Yemen—from a tribe totally preoccupied with local, sectarian goals into an ambitious party. The Houthi leader now makes reference to regional and international issues as he claims to speak on behalf of Islam and Muslims everywhere. The Houthis have transitioned from the insignificant, scarcely-known Believing Youth to Ansar Allah — the Defenders of God — a name derived from a Koranic verse. The Houthis have drawn help from Iran and Hezbollah—and the attention of the world in the process. In the words of Abdelmalek Al-Houthi in a recent speech, “Our ambitions are limitless.” [Continue reading…]

Adam Baron writes: The latest political developments in Yemen — which culminated in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Khaled Bahah, his Cabinet and President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi on Jan. 22 — have left even the most politically consummate Yemenis struggling to put the pieces together.

The country’s widening fault lines are now on full display. Political officials are no longer identified solely by their position but also by their geographical origin, religious background and political history. While many continue to cling to Yemeni nationalism, any remaining sense of unifying links among the country’s various stakeholders appears to be dissipating. If there was any doubt, the succession of local governorates announcing that they will no longer take orders from Sanaa confirmed it.

The roots of the current crisis date back more than a decade before last week’s events. In June 2004 then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh dispatched government forces to arrest Hussein al-Houthi, a charismatic cleric and former member of parliament. Saleh felt increasingly threatened by Houthi’s soaring popularity, due in large part to his sharp critiques of the Yemeni government’s alliance with the United States, the marginalization of the his native province of Saada and the capital’s rampant corruption. He was killed along with more than a dozen followers in the rugged mountains of Marran, according to a statement the government released on Sept. 10, 2004. But his Ansar Allah movement — better known as the Houthis — soldiered on under the leadership of his younger brother, Abdul Malek al-Houthi, as Saleh’s regime waged a series of brutal wars that devastated much of northern Yemen over the past decade. The military campaign further intensified the feelings of marginalization and resentment that laid the seeds for the Houthi rebellion. [Continue reading…]