NIE

The intelligence on Afghanistan that Obama refuses to reveal

by News Sources 11.26.2011

Steve Coll writes: In late 2008, the United States intelligence community produced a classified National Intelligence Estimate on the war in Afghanistan that has never been released to the public. The N.I.E. described a “grim situation” overall, according to an intelligence officer’s private briefing for NATO ambassadors. In late 2010, there was another N.I.E. on [...]

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Iran postulates first nuclear test

by News Sources 06.15.2011

Jamsheed K. Choksy writes: Media outlets and blogs in Israel, England, and the U.S. have responded with considerable incredulity to claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of sanguine reactions if Iran tests an atom bomb. The IRGC’s scenario underscores an unfortunate reality, however. After years of hollow threats, politicians and generals in the [...]

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Why sanctions against Iran won’t work

by News Sources 06.05.2011

Reza Marashi writes: To the surprise of few, new Iran sanctions legislation was recently introduced in the House and Senate, shortly before this year’s AIPAC conference commenced. In what has become a game of domestic political one-upsmanship, some members of Congress are now supporting Iran-related legislation that would effectively seek to impose an oil embargo [...]

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Israeli attack on Iran not imminent

by Paul Woodward 08.20.2010

If there was a ministry of information it would release reports like this: “US Assures Israel That Iran Threat Is Not Imminent.” But why would Washington need to create such an agency when the New York Times so gladly provides the service? In a report transparently written as a quasi-official response to Jeffrey Goldberg’s “The [...]

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Israel’s indispensable enemies

by Paul Woodward 04.25.2010

The brutality with which the Iranian authorities have suppressed political dissent since last June’s disputed presidential election has been widely reported. The Washington Post now reveals that the political turmoil has had another effect: it has resulted in a new supply of intelligence as disaffected officials leak information about Iran’s nuclear program. As a result, [...]

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NEWS & OPINION: Bush’s effort to undermine the NIE

by Paul Woodward 01.15.2008

Artificial intelligence By Fred Kaplan, Slate, January 14, 2008 President George W. Bush hasn’t accomplished much on his voyage to the Middle East, but he did take the time to inflict another wound on the entire U.S. intelligence community—and on the credibility of anything he might ever again say about the world. In the latest [...]

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NEWS: Israel’s new intelligence estimate – mixed threats

by Paul Woodward 12.16.2007

Exclusive: Annual Israeli Intelligence Estimate By Ron Ben-Yishai, Ynet, December 16, 2007 Deep pessimism alongside cautious optimism- those are the two key principles that emerge from this year’s Annual Israeli Intelligence Estimate. The report will be presented to the security cabinet in several days time by IDF Intelligence Chief Major-General Amos Yadlin, but the highlights [...]

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NEWS: Israeli official: U.S. is not doing enough on Iran nukes

by Paul Woodward 12.13.2007

Israeli official: U.S. is not doing enough on Iran nukes By Yossi Melman, Haaretz, December 13, 2007 A senior Israeli official has fiercely criticized U.S. President George Bush’s administration for the way it has dealt with the Iranian nuclear issue. The official said that the administration was not doing what was required of it to [...]

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FEATURE: Intelligence reform

by Paul Woodward 12.09.2007

Nine little words in the NIE By Thomas Powers, Los Angeles Times, December 9, 2007 Intelligence stories rarely get more complicated than this one. But this much is clear: Bush is the nation’s chief classification officer; he can make and unmake secrets at will. The White House says the president was briefed on the findings [...]

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NEWS: More on NIE

by Paul Woodward 12.08.2007

Diving deep, unearthing a surprise ByPeter Baker and Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, December 8, 2007 As they digested the new findings, Bush and his aides chose to focus on the part that confirmed their suspicions — that Iran previously had a secret weapons program and might still restart it. In their discussions at the White [...]

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ANALYSIS & OPINION: A new approach to Iran

by Paul Woodward 12.07.2007

Why containing Iran won’t work: Washington’s flawed new Middle East strategy By Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 2008 The Middle East is a region continuously divided against itself. In the 1960s, radical Arab regimes contested the legitimacy and power of traditional monarchical states. In the 1970s, Islamic fundamentalists rejected the prevailing secular [...]

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NEWS: Republicans want intelligence to their liking

by Paul Woodward 12.07.2007

Review of Iran intelligence to be sought By Robin Wright and Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, December 7, 2007 Senate Republicans are planning to call for a congressional commission to investigate the conclusions of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran as well as the specific intelligence that went into it, according to congressional sources. The [...]

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NEWS & ANALYSIS: Israel and American Jewish organizations respond to NIE

by Paul Woodward 12.07.2007

Israel warns Iran to co-operate or pay price By Con Coughlin and David Sanger, The Age, December 7, 2007 Israel has warned Iran to either co-operate with the West over its uranium enrichment program or face military action. Ron Prosor, Israel’s newly appointed ambassador to Britain and one of his country’s leading experts on Iran’s [...]

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NEWS, ANALYSIS & OPINION: NIE reverberations continue

by Paul Woodward 12.06.2007

Why the Pentagon is happy about the NIE By Mark Thompson, Time, December 5, 2007 The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was the final factor in a military equation that now appears to guarantee that there will be no war with Iran during the Bush Administration. It meshes with the views of the operational [...]

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EDITORIAL: When reason prevails

by Paul Woodward 12.05.2007

When reason prevails By Paul Woodward, War in Context, December 5, 2007 To some political observers there is something vaguely disappointing about witnessing events shaped by reason. Reasonable behavior is somewhat predictable and lacks the zest and drama of the unexpected. In as much as news-watching is driven by the stimulating effect of the shock [...]

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NEWS & ANALYSIS: Evolving perspectives on Iran

by Paul Woodward 12.05.2007

Time has come for U.S. to pursue talks with Iran By Zvi Bar’el, Haaretz, December 5, 2007 The American intelligence report that makes the option of a military strike against Iran – and possibly the next dose of sanctions – less likely to materialize gives us an important time-out to try a new avenue vis-a-vis [...]

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EDITORIAL: The diplomatic shift

by Paul Woodward 12.04.2007

The who-knew-what-when questions and the larger story By Paul Woodward, War in Context, December 4, 2007 According to President Bush, “it wasn’t until last week that I was briefed on the NIE that is now public.” National Security Adviser, Stephen Hadley, was yesterday even more specific: “…the intelligence community finally came to the judgments that [...]

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NEWS & ANALYSIS: NIE fallout

by Paul Woodward 12.04.2007

Israel unconvinced Iran has dropped nuclear program By Steven Erlanger and Graham Bowley, New York Times, December 4, 2007 Israel today took a darker view of Iran’s nuclear ambitions than the assessment released by United States intelligence agencies yesterday, saying it was convinced that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons. It said Iran had probably resumed [...]

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NEWS & EDITOR’S COMMENT: Intelligence community puts Cheney in restraints

by Paul Woodward 12.03.2007

U.S. says Iran ended atomic arms work By Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, December 3, 2007 A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb. [...]

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