Monthly Archives: November 2007

NEWS: Federal judge doesn’t trust government

Moussaoui judge questions government
By Matthew Barakat, AP, November 20, 2007

A federal judge expressed frustration Tuesday that the government provided incorrect information about evidence in the prosecution of Sept. 11 conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui and raised the possibility of ordering a new trial in another high-profile terrorism case.

At a post-trial hearing Tuesday for Ali al-Timimi, a Muslim cleric from Virginia sentenced to life in prison in 2004 for soliciting treason, U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema said she can no longer trust the CIA and other government agencies on how they represent classified evidence in terror cases. [complete article]

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NEWS: In Afghanistan “things are looking decent” for the Taliban

U.S. notes limited progress in Afghan war
By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, November 25, 2007

A White House assessment of the war in Afghanistan has concluded that wide-ranging strategic goals that the Bush administration set for 2007 have not been met, even as U.S. and NATO forces have scored significant combat successes against resurgent Taliban fighters, according to U.S. officials.

The evaluation this month by the National Security Council followed an in-depth review in late 2006 that laid out a series of projected improvements for this year, including progress in security, governance and the economy. But the latest assessment concluded that only “the kinetic piece” — individual battles against Taliban fighters — has shown substantial progress, while improvements in the other areas continue to lag, a senior administration official said.

This judgment reflects sharp differences between U.S. military and intelligence officials on where the Afghan war is headed. Intelligence analysts acknowledge the battlefield victories, but they highlight the Taliban’s unchallenged expansion into new territory, an increase in opium poppy cultivation and the weakness of the government of President Hamid Karzai as signs that the war effort is deteriorating. [complete article]

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OPINION: Forgeting how democracy works

Hey, young Americans, here’s a text for you
By Naomi Wolf, Washington Post, November 25, 2007

Is America still America if millions of us no longer know how democracy works?

When I speak on college campuses, I find that students are either baffled by democracy’s workings or that they don’t see any point in engaging in the democratic process. Sometimes both.

Not long ago, I gave a talk at a major university in the Midwest. “They’re going to raze our meadows and put in a shopping mall!” a young woman in the audience wailed. “And there’s nothing we can do!” she said, to the nods of young and old alike.

I stared at her in amazement and asked how old she was. When she said 26, I suggested that she run for city council. Then she stared at me– with complete incomprehension. It took me a long time to convince her and her peers in the audience that what I’d suggested was possible, even if she didn’t have money, a major media outlet of her own or a political “machine” behind her.

This lack of understanding about how democracy works is disturbing enough. But at a time when our system of government is under assault from an administration that ignores traditional checks and balances, engages in illegal wiretapping and writes secret laws on torture, it means that we’re facing an unprecedented crisis. [complete article]

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OPINION: What’s America worth?

In the realm of the dying dollar
By Michael Hirsh, Newsweek, November 23, 2007

Great powers die slowly. It took years before the world realized that Great Britain was an imperial corpse, sapped of its strength by two world wars. The funeral finally occurred on Feb. 21, 1947, a freezing winter day in bomb-torn, bedraggled London, when the British wrote their own epitaph. That was the day that London cabled Washington: “His Majesty’s Government, in view of their own situation, find it impossible to grant further financial assistance to Greece,” amounting to a half billion dollars a year and a garrison of 40,000 troops. The British also announced the same day that they were withdrawing from Turkey. “The British are finished,” remarked a stunned Dean Acheson, who was soon to be Harry Truman’s secretary of State. And so they were. It was the early cold war. With the Soviet Union threatening to extend its influence over Greece and Turkey, there was no time for elegies. Instead, a quick passing of the baton took place: the United States would now fill Britain’s role and become the central, stabilizing power in the West. This was the moment of “creation” of the U.S.-led world order, Acheson later realized.

One has to wonder now whether the American superpower is also experiencing a terminal illness, with its decline marked by the dollar’s downward drift. The one difference being that there is no successor on the horizon (the Chinese have a long, long way to go), and the currency that is replacing the dollar, the euro, is backed not by an emerging superpower but by the feeble cacophony of voices that is the European Union. Yet the signs of imperial decadence are unmistakable. The world is losing confidence in the dollar, in no small part because it has lost confidence in America’s strategic judgment and in its sustainability as a great power in the face of record budget and trade deficits, which are forcing the United States to borrow ever more money from future rivals like China and Russia. [complete article]

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NEWS & ANALYSIS: Confronting Iran

War is peace, sanctions are diplomacy
By Carah Ong, MERIP, November 23, 2007

The White House is pressing ahead with its stated goal of persuading the UN Security Council to pass far-reaching sanctions to punish Iran for refusing to suspend its nuclear research program. Sanctions are what President George W. Bush is referring to when he pledges to nervous US allies that he intends to “continue to work together to solve this problem diplomatically.” The non-diplomatic solution in this framing of the “problem,” presumably, would be airstrikes on nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic.

With its portrayal of UN and unilateral US sanctions as part of a diplomatic effort, the Bush administration has successfully confused much media coverage of the Iranian-Western confrontation over Iran’s enrichment of uranium. Sanctions are punitive measures, not serious diplomacy, and the Bush administration has never undertaken a sustained diplomatic initiative aimed either at inducing Iran to cease enriching uranium or at soothing broader US-Iranian tensions. Meanwhile, the Bush administration’s persistent refusal to take military options “off the table,” combined with its intensified rhetoric against Iran, has made sanctions palatable to allies, as well as to some of the most dovish members of Congress and the American public — but without addressing the political disputes that keep the US and Iran on a collision course. Congress, by and large, has merely greased the skids. [complete article]

U.S. electronic surveillance monitored Israeli attack on Syria
By David A. Fulghum and Robert Wall, Aviation Week, November 21, 2007

The U.S. provided Israel with information about Syrian air defenses before Israel attacked a suspected nuclear site in Syria, Aviation Week & Space Technology is reporting in its Nov. 26 edition.

The U.S. was monitoring the electronic emissions coming from Syria during Israel’s Sept. 6 attack, and while there was no active American engagement in the operation, there was advice provided, according to military and aerospace industry officials.

The first event in the raid involved Israel’s strike aircraft flying into Syria without alerting Syrian air defenses. The ultimate target was a suspected nuclear reactor being developed at Dayr az-Zawr. But the main attack was preceded by an engagement with a single Syrian radar site at Tall al-Abuad near the Turkish border.

The radar site was struck with a combination of electronic attack and precision bombs to allow the Israeli force to enter and exit Syrian airspace unobserved. Subsequently all of Syria’s air-defense radar system went off the air for a period of time that encompassed the raid, U.S. intelligence analysts told Aviation Week. [complete article]

Editor’s Comment — This report presents further evidence that, as Gareth Porter suggested earlier this week, “a more plausible explanation for the strike [than its being aimed at destroying a purported Syrian nuclear facility, is] that it was a calculated effort by Israel and the United States to convince Iran that its nuclear facilities could be attacked as well.”

A plan to attack Iran swiftly and from above
By Paul Koring, Globe and Mail, November 22, 2007

Massive, devastating air strikes, a full dose of “shock and awe” with hundreds of bunker-busting bombs slicing through concrete at more than a dozen nuclear sites across Iran is no longer just the idle musing of military planners and uber-hawks.

Although air strikes don’t seem imminent as the U.S.-Iranian drama unfolds, planning for a bombing campaign and preparing for the geopolitical blowback has preoccupied military and political councils for months.

No one is predicting a full-blown ground war with Iran. The likeliest scenario, a blistering air war that could last as little as one night or as long as two weeks, would be designed to avoid the quagmire of invasion and regime change that now characterizes Iraq. But skepticism remains about whether any amount of bombing can substantially delay Iran’s entry into the nuclear-weapons club. [complete article]

Iran warns of domino effect of nuclear attack
By Damien McElroy, The Telegraph, November 23, 2007

Iran warned today that an attack on its nuclear facilities would trigger a “domino” effect across the Middle East as deeply divided world powers met to review Teheran’s co-operation with United Nations resolutions.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Iranian promises that access to suspected nuclear facilities will increase in the months ahead. At a meeting of the body’s 35-country board of governors in Vienna today, battle lines were drawn both over Mr ElBaradei’s faith in an Iranian blueprint and the text of the IAEA’s latest report which said Iran had cleared up several key questions about its past research.

America and Britain are pushing for the UN to quickly impose a third round of sanctions on Iran to reinforce the drive to close the Islamic Republic’s secret programme of atomic research, which appears to be slowly yielding the capability to make a nuclear weapon.

China and Russia, which have not yet swung behind new sanctions, appear poised to back Mr ElBaradei’s calls for negotiators to be given more time. [complete article]

Iran’s Ahmadinejad slammed for accusing rivals
AFP, November 22, 2007

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is facing increasing criticism for his virulent personal attacks on rivals and acting as both “plaintiff and judge” in legal cases, media reported on Thursday.

He has drastically upped the stakes ahead of March parliamentary elections by accusing opponents of being “traitors” for not supporting the government’s confrontational stance in the nuclear crisis.

“The general climate of the country has been overwhelmed by propaganda against individuals,” complained an angry editorial in the hardline Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, close to Iran’s clerical establishment. [complete article]

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NEWS, ANALYSIS & EDITOR’S COMMENT: The Annapolis peace ambiance

U.S. push on Palestinians has Iran motive
By Sue Pleming, Reuters, November 23, 2007

The United States hopes one byproduct of its Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking will be a moderate Arab alliance to counter Iran’s influence in the region, but analysts are skeptical the strategy will work.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has argued that a strong Palestinian state could act as a bulwark against a rise in extremism, mainly from Iran, which Washington accuses of backing groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. [complete article]

Editor’s Comment — Reuters reports that:

Rice was asked this week if ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had more to do with Iran than anything else.

“It’s a strange argument,” she told reporters but she reiterated her view that growing extremism in the Middle East was a key factor driving the main players in the region to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Even if Rice says this is a strange argument, it should also be a familiar argument since it was essentially the argument being made by her then-counselor, Philip Zelikow in a keynote address to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy just over a year ago. Zelikow envisioned a coalition of the “United States, key European allies, the state of Israel and the Arab moderates” that would be needed to confront Iran. He said that what would “bind that coalition and help keep them together is a sense that the Arab-Israeli issues are being addressed.” The Annapolis meeting is taking place to foster that “sense”; to create an ambiance in which it feels like there is movement in the direction of a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Likudnik hawks work to undermine Annapolis
By Jim Lobe, Antiwar.com, November 22, 2007

Despite near-universal skepticism about the prospects for launching a serious, new Middle East peace process at next week’s Israeli-Palestinian summit in Annapolis, a familiar clutch of neoconservative hawks close to the Likud Party leader, former Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, isn’t taking any chances.

Hard-liners associated with the American Enterprise Institute and Freedom’s Watch, a bountifully funded campaign led by prominent backers of the Republican Jewish Coalition, among other like-minded groups, are mounting a concerted attack against next week’s meeting which they fear could result in pressure on Israel to make territorial concessions.

The attack, which comes amid steadily growing neoconservative fears that the administration of President George W. Bush is becoming increasingly “realist” in its last year in office, is being directed primarily against Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, rather than the president himself. [complete article]

Syria reportedly to skip summit, as Haniyeh calls meet ‘stillborn’
Haaretz, November 22, 2007

Hamas’ Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh said Thursday that next week’s U.S.-sponsored Middle East peace conference is stillborn and will achieve nothing for the Palestinians, as the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat reported that Syria has already decided not to attend the Annapolis, Maryland summit.

“We realize that this conference was stillborn and is not going to achieve for the Palestinian people any of its goals or any of the political and legal rights due to them,” Haniyeh said outside the Palestinian parliament building in Gaza City.

Haniyeh said Abbas did not have the mandate to make compromises in talks with Israel, especially over the demand of Palestinian refugees to return with their families to homes in Israel they lost during the 1948 War of Independence. [complete article]

Saudis to attend Middle East peace conference
By Peter Walker, The Guardian, November 23, 2007

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister is to attend next week’s Middle East peace conference, he announced today, in a significant boost to the US-sponsored talks.

“I’m not hiding any secret about the Saudi position. We were reluctant until today,” Saud al-Faisal told a press conference at the ongoing Arab League meeting in Cairo.

“If not for the Arab consensus we felt today, we would not have decided to go,” he said. “But the kingdom would never stand against an Arab consensus, as long as the Arab position has agreed on attending, the kingdom will walk along with its brothers in one line.” [complete article]

Israel to start gradually reducing Gaza power supply December 2
By Yuval Yoaz, Haaretz, November 23, 2007

Israel to begin gradually reducing the power supply to the Gaza Strip on December 2, in response to the ongoing Qassam rocket fire at Israeli communities along the Strip, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz told the High Court of Justice on Thursday.

According to the State Prosecution, the defense establishment has finalized preparations meant to ensure that the power reduction does not cause humanitarian harm Gaza.

The Palestinians will be given a one-week advance notice of the intention to begin reducing the power supply. [complete article]

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NEWS: New threats to civil liberties

Cellphone tracking powers on request
By Ellen Nakashima, Washington Post, November 23, 2007

Federal officials are routinely asking courts to order cellphone companies to furnish real-time tracking data so they can pinpoint the whereabouts of drug traffickers, fugitives and other criminal suspects, according to judges and industry lawyers.

In some cases, judges have granted the requests without requiring the government to demonstrate that there is probable cause to believe that a crime is taking place or that the inquiry will yield evidence of a crime. Privacy advocates fear such a practice may expose average Americans to a new level of government scrutiny of their daily lives.

Such requests run counter to the Justice Department’s internal recommendation that federal prosecutors seek warrants based on probable cause to obtain precise location data in private areas. The requests and orders are sealed at the government’s request, so it is difficult to know how often the orders are issued or denied. [complete article]

UK ‘terrorist’ fights science-course ban
By Geoff Brumfiel, Nature, November 21, 2007

A British resident who is under surveillance for suspected terrorist activities is being prohibited from taking secondary-school-level [high school] science courses by the government, Nature has learned.

The man, referred to as A.E., is contesting the decision in court, in what is believed to be the first case of its kind. The preliminary hearing over whether A.E. should be allowed to take AS-level courses in human biology and chemistry took place on 16 November at London’s High Court. The UK Home Office, which has an order restricting A.E.’s actions and affiliations, argues that such coursework could be turned towards terrorism. His solicitors counter that the knowledge is public, and that the furthering of A.E.’s education poses no threat.

At the heart of the case is a simple question: should basic courses in science be treated as potential tools for terror when in the wrong hands? [complete article]

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NEWS: Foreign fighters in Iraq

Foreign fighters in Iraq are tied to allies of U.S.
By Richard A. Oppel Jr., New York Times, November 22, 2007

Saudi Arabia and Libya, both considered allies by the United States in its fight against terrorism, were the source of about 60 percent of the foreign fighters who came to Iraq in the past year to serve as suicide bombers or to facilitate other attacks, according to senior American military officials.

The data come largely from a trove of documents and computers discovered in September, when American forces raided a tent camp in the desert near Sinjar, close to the Syrian border. The raid’s target was an insurgent cell believed to be responsible for smuggling the vast majority of foreign fighters into Iraq.

The most significant discovery was a collection of biographical sketches that listed hometowns and other details for more than 700 fighters brought into Iraq since August 2006. [complete article]

Ex-Iraq commander says bring troops home
AP, November 21, 2007

Retired Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the top commander in Iraq shortly after the fall of Baghdad, said this week he supports Democratic legislation that calls for most troops to come home within a year.

His comments come as welcomed ammunition for the Democratic-controlled Congress in its standoff with the White House on war spending. This month, the House passed a $50 billion bill that would pay for combat operations but sets the goal that combat end by Dec. 15, 2008. The White House threatened to veto the measure, and Senate Republicans blocked it from passing.

The Pentagon on Tuesday said that as many as 200,000 civilian employees and contractors will begin receiving layoff warnings by Christmas unless Congress approves a war spending bill that President Bush will sign. [complete article]

Returnees find a capital transformed
By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post , November , 2007

Iraqis are returning to their homeland by the hundreds each day, by bus, car and plane, encouraged by weeks of decreased violence and increased security, or compelled by visa and residency restrictions in neighboring countries and the depletion of their savings.

Those returning make up only a tiny fraction of the 2.2 million Iraqis who have fled Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. But they represent the largest number of returnees since February 2006, when sectarian violence began to rise dramatically, speeding the exodus from Iraq. [complete article]

Shiites in S. Iraq rebuke Tehran
By Amit R. Paley and Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post, November 22, 2007

More than 300,000 Shiite Muslims from southern Iraq have signed a petition condemning Iran for fomenting violence in Iraq, according to a group of sheiks leading the campaign.

“The Iranians, in fact, have taken over all of south Iraq,” said a senior tribal leader from the south who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared for his life. “Their influence is everywhere.” [complete article]

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NEWS: Musharraf becoming more isolated

Failure to meet deadline brings fresh Commonwealth suspension
By Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, November 23, 2007

Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth yesterday, for the second time in eight years, after President Pervez Musharraf failed to meet a deadline for lifting emergency rule.

Gordon Brown welcomed the decision late last night in Kampala, Uganda saying the move was necessary and justified. He said Britain would work with the Commonwealth to see that the terms on which Pakistan could be readmitted were met.

The decision came after four hours of talks in Kampala at foreign minister level, with Britain and Canada leading the call for suspension with terms for readmittance. Some of Pakistan’s fellow Asian countries, such as Malaysia, opposed. Smaller countries, including African ones, backed outright suspension. [complete article]

Sharif to end exile and return to Pakistan on Sunday
By Simon Cameron-Moore, Reuters, November 23, 2007

Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister deposed by President Pervez Musharraf in a coup eight years ago, will return to Pakistan from Saudi Arabia on Sunday, his brother Shahbaz Sharif told a Pakistani news channel.

General Musharraf, under intense criticism at home and abroad for imposing emergency rule three weeks ago, agreed to Sharif’s return in discussions with Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh this week, according to a leader of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML).

Sharif met King Abdullah in Riyadh for a “farewell meeting” on Friday. [complete article]

Court dismisses legal challenge against Musharraf
By Pamela Constable, Washington Post, November 22, 2007

President Pervez Musharraf’s script for a tightly controlled political transition moved ahead on cue Thursday, as his hand-picked Supreme Court dismissed the final legal challenge to Musharraf becoming president for another five-year term and officials said he would resign as army chief within days.

Aides and supporters of Musharraf said they hoped that once he is sworn in as a civilian president, probably by this weekend, the barrage of domestic and foreign criticism against his imposition of emergency rule will recede and the nation’s attention will turn to parliamentary and provincial legislative elections now scheduled for Jan. 8. [complete article]

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NEWS: Lebanon’s political limbo

Lebanese fail to elect president
BBC News, November 23, 2007

Lebanese MPs have failed to convene to elect a new president as the term of the incumbent, Emile Lahoud, expires.

Members of the Western-backed majority had hoped to hold a vote, but the pro-Syrian opposition did not allow the session to achieve the quorum needed.

The crisis has raised fears of civil strife, including the possibility of rival administrations, as happened during the 15-year civil war. [complete article]

From hopeful to helpless at a protest in Lebanon
By Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, November 23, 2007

Squalls of rain lashed the offices of Carmen Geha and other young activists. Thunder rolling off the Mediterranean provided a cadence to their work. The weather was a little like politics this week in Lebanon — turbulent and baleful. And Geha, optimistic against the odds, was determined to provide a glimmer of hope.

Lebanon finds itself in a familiar place these days, facing the unknown. Its worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war builds to a climax at midnight Friday, when the term of President Emile Lahoud ends. Despite weeks of French-led mediation, Lebanon’s factions appeared unlikely to reach a consensus on Lahoud’s replacement by the deadline, plunging the country into a constitutional limbo that sets up scenarios as diverse as the country’s problems: rival governments, military rule or a vacuum, along with the civil strife each option could bring.

Geha and her colleagues readily admit the confrontation is bigger than they are. But on Wednesday, they organized a protest outside the parliament, planning to deliver a blunt demand, in the hopes that others would join them. Enough of a crisis, they said, that has brought a country still scarred by one war to the brink of another. [complete article]

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NEWS: The Kalima Project

Two cultures, one language: Arabic translation of great works aims to bridge divide
By Boyd Tonkin, The Independent, November 22, 2007

The greatest Yiddish-language writer of the 20th century features on a list of 100 books chosen to inaugurate a daring, long-term project to bring landmark foreign works to Arabic-speaking readers.

The Collected Stories Of Isaac Bashevis Singer, by an author who was raised in Poland but for decades dominated Yiddish writing in New York, will join titles ranging from Sophocles and Chaucer to Stephen Hawking and Haruki Murakami among the first selections of the Kalima translation programme.

The Kalima (meaning “word” in Arabic) project aims to revive the art of translation across the Arab world and reverse the long decline in Arabic readers’ access to major works of global literature, philosophy, science and history. [complete article]

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NEWS, ANALYSIS & OPINION: How is Iraq changing?

2008: The year of federalism in Iraq?
By Reidar Visser, historiae.org, November 12, 2007

In all the speculation about the fate of the US “surge” policy in Iraq, many analysts have overlooked a date on the 2008 calendar which is bound to become fateful: 11 April. On that day, the current moratorium on creating new federal entities – a last-minute addition to the Iraqi federalism legislation in October 2006 – comes to an end. From April 2008 onwards, the administrative map of Iraq could change dramatically. [complete article]

Iraq: Toward national reconciliation, or a warlord state?
By Jim Lobe, Antiwar, November 21, 2007

While the vast majority of analysts agree that sectarian violence in Iraq has declined sharply from pre-“surge” levels one year ago, a major debate has broken out as to whether the achievement of the surge’s strategic objective – national reconciliation – is closer or more distant than ever.

On one side, advocates of the surge – the deployment beginning last February of some 30,000 additional troops to Iraq to help pacify Baghdad and al-Anbar province – claim that the counter-insurgency strategy overseen by Gen. David Petraeus has succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

On the other side, surge skeptics argue that the strategy’s “ground-up” approach to pacification – buying off local insurgent and tribal groups with money and other support – may have set the stage for a much bigger and more violent civil war or partition, particularly as U.S. forces begin drawing down from their current high of about 175,000 beginning as early as next month.

One prominent analyst, George Washington University Prof. Marc Lynch, believes that Petraeus’ strategy of reducing violence by making deals with dominant local powers is leading to the creation in Iraq of a “warlord state” with “power devolved to local militias, gangs, tribes, and power-brokers, with a purely nominal central state.” [complete article]

In Iraq, signs of hope and peril
By David Ignatius, Washington Post, November 21, 2007

Even Osama bin Laden understands that al-Qaeda has stumbled badly in Iraq. In an Oct. 22 audiotape that attracted too little notice at the time, bin Laden scolded his followers for tactics that alienated Iraqis. “Mistakes have been made during holy wars,” he said. “Some of you have been lax in one duty, which is to unite your ranks.”

Bin Laden’s self-criticism was “possibly the most important message” in al-Qaeda’s history, wrote Abdel Bari Atwan, an Arab journalist who has interviewed bin Laden and written an insightful biography. “It is the first time that bin Laden recognizes the error committed by the members of his organization and in particular the excesses committed in Iraq.”

Second, the recent security gains reflect the fact that Iran is standing down, for the moment. The Iranian-backed Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr has sharply curtailed its operations. The shelling of the Green Zone by Iranian-backed militias in Sadr City has stopped. The flow of deadly roadside bombs from Iran appears to have slowed or stopped. And to make it official, the Iranians announced Tuesday that they will resume security discussions in Baghdad with U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

I suspect the Iranians’ new policy of accommodation is a tactical shift. They still want to exert leverage over a future Iraq, but they have concluded that the best way to do so is to work with U.S. forces — and speed our eventual exit — rather than continue a policy of confrontation. A genuine U.S.-Iranian understanding about stabilizing Iraq would be a very important development. But we should see it for what it is: The Iranians will contain their proxy forces in Iraq because it’s in their interest to do so. [complete article]

Maliki thrown a political lifeline
By Sami Moubayed, Asia Times, November 22, 2007

The Iraqi Accordance Front, the Sunni heavyweight in Iraqi politics, has decided to rejoin the cabinet of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which it abandoned on August 1.

It is unclear whether the same five ministers, along with deputy prime minister Salam Zoubai, who all stepped down, will return to work with the premier or whether the Front will nominate new ministers for the vacant posts. They resigned because Maliki had not responded to any of the 11 demands they had made. These included a greater decision-making role for Sunnis and an amnesty for Sunni prisoners – mainly former Ba’athists who had joined – or been accused of taking part in – the Sunni insurgency.

This comes amid increased speculation that Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr will also soon reconcile with Maliki, having also walked out on him in recent months due to Maliki’s “friendship” with US President George W Bush. [complete article]

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OPINION: The undoing of a Kurdish resolution

Turkey’s fickle friends
By Stephen Kinzer, The Guardian, November 20, 2007

The democratic revolution that has brought unprecedented levels of freedom to Turkey in recent years will not be complete until the festering Kurdish problem is resolved. When I toured the Kurdish region two years ago, a solution seemed tantalisingly close. Kurds were overflowing with optimism. Now that optimism has crashed back into frustration and anger. What happened?

In the summer of 2005, prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Diyarbakir, the biggest city in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, and delivered a speech that was shocking in its candor. “A great and powerful nation must have the confidence to face itself, recognise the mistakes and sins of the past and march confidently into the future,” he said. “The Kurdish issue does not belong to a part of our nation, but to us all … . We accept it as real and are ready to face it.”

Today, southeastern Turkey is again militarised. Thousands of soldiers are poised to stage cross-border raids into northern Iraq, where Kurdish guerrillas of the rebel PKK maintain fortified bases. Turks who call for a peaceful, democratic solution to the Kurdish problem are once again branded traitors. Kurdish mayors are being arrested. [complete article]

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NEWS & ANALYSIS: The problem in Pakistan

The problem in Pakistan
By Tony Karon, Rootless Cosmpolitan, November 21, 2007

The bottom line in Pakistan, where all opinion polls find Osama bin Laden an overwhelmingly more popular figure than President Bush, is that even the urban middle class opposes Pakistan’s frontline role in fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda. It is a war that most Pakistanis see as benefiting a hostile U.S. agenda — even those Pakistanis who want no truck with Shariah law themselves. Indeed, savvy middle class Pakistanis know all too well that the whole jihadist infrastructure of madrassas and paramilitary organizations was first created in the northwest as part of a U.S.-Saudi program to create the infrastructure for an insurgency against the Soviets in Afghanistan. They’ll know, also, that the Pakistani military nurtured this element as a proxy force against India in Kashmir, just as it nurtured the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Ultimately, Pakistani politics has been horribly disfigured, not only by the venal ineptitude of the Benazir-Nawaz brand of politician, but also by the role Pakistan has been expected to play, for a half century, in U.S. geopolitical plans. [complete article]

Bush more emphatic in backing Musharraf
By Michael Abramowitz and Robin Wright, Washington Post, November 21, 2007

President Bush yesterday offered his strongest support of embattled Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, saying the general “hasn’t crossed the line” and “truly is somebody who believes in democracy.”

Bush spoke nearly three weeks after Musharraf declared emergency rule, sacked members of the Supreme Court and began a roundup of journalists, lawyers and human rights activists. Musharraf’s government yesterday released about 3,000 political prisoners, although 2,000 remain in custody, according to the Interior Ministry. [complete article]

An unlikely visitor gives Musharraf support
By Marc Perelman, The Forward, November 21, 2007

A few days before Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte traveled to Islamabad last week to impress upon General Pervez Musharraf the need to restore democratic rule in Pakistan, another American envoy quietly landed in the capital to chat with the Pakistani president and army chief.

With the blessing of Washington, Jack Rosen, chairman of the American Jewish Congress’s Council for World Jewry, traveled halfway across the globe for a face-to-face meeting with Musharraf, who he had hailed two years ago as a courageous leader and driving force in Jewish-Muslim dialogue. [complete article]

Imran Khan released from prison
BBC News, November 21, 2007

The Pakistan opposition politician, Imran Khan, has been released from prison in southern Punjab where he has been held under anti-terrorism laws.

The former cricketer was arrested by police last week after attending a protest at Punjab University in Lahore. [complete article]

Pentagon: Double funds for Pakistani force
AP, November 20, 2007

The Pentagon wants to nearly double the funding to train and equip a Pakistani paramilitary force, saying the locally-based fighters are more effective in the difficult region bordering Afghanistan.

The U.S. military has asked to spend $97 million in 2008, compared with $52.6 million this year, on training and equipping the Frontier Corps, which has personnel of the same ethnicity as the recalcitrant tribes along the border. [complete article]

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NEWS: Who’s going to Annapolis?

Wanted: Participants for Mideast talks
By Helene Cooper and Isabel Kershner, New York Times, November 21, 2007

The Bush administration finally acknowledged publicly on Tuesday that it had issued formal invitations to 40 countries and organizations that it hopes will attend a heavily anticipated Middle East peace conference scheduled for next week in Annapolis, Md. But the long, drawn-out route that State Department officials followed before making the acknowledgment reflected the high-stakes gamble that the administration is taking, as well as the unsettled nature of the outcome. Even late Tuesday afternoon, administration officials were still in negotiations with their Arab counterparts over whether Saudi Arabia and Syria would send their foreign ministers to the conference, or make do with lower-level envoys. [complete article]

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OPINION: Lebanon on the brink

A powder keg in Lebanon
By Milton Viorst, Los Angeles Times, November 21, 2007

While the eyes of the world are focused on the fading prospects of ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the upcoming meeting in Annapolis, Md., an electoral deadlock in Lebanon grinds inexorably to a climax, threatening to upset an 18-year factional truce and ignite a new civil war that will add one more explosive ingredient to Middle East instability.

Lebanon’s problems are not new. They are rooted in the 1920s, when France’s colonial regime created the country out of Syrian territory and squeezed Christians, Druze and Muslims — Sunni and Shiite — into it. At that time, the Maronite Christians, whose close ties to France dated to the Middle Ages, were the colonial power’s political allies, so the constitution that France imparted required that Lebanon’s president, its most powerful official, be a Maronite. The prime minister, under the constitution, would be a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of the parliament would be a Shiite. The system, a peculiar form of democracy, is called “confessionalism.”

For most of the ensuing years, confessionalism enabled the sects to coexist in a fragile balance. The enormous exception was the horrible civil war that raged from 1975 to 1989, killing 100,000 and leaving much of the country in ruins. None of the sects wants a repetition. [complete article]

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NEWS: A million homeless in Somalia

‘One million’ homeless in Somalia
BBC News, November 21, 2007

One million people are now living rough in Somalia, the UN refugee agency says.

The figure includes 60% of Mogadishu residents who have fled their homes – 200,000 in the past two weeks – leaving many districts empty, says UNHCR.

People have been forced out by renewed conflict between Islamist insurgents and Ethiopian-backed government forces. [complete article]

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NEWS: Taliban active in over half of Afghanistan

Afghanistan ‘falling into Taliban hands’
By Richard Norton-Taylor, The Guardian, November 21, 2007

The Taliban has a permanent presence in 54% of Afghanistan and the country is in serious danger of falling into the group’s hands, according to a report by an independent thinktank with long experience in the area.

Despite the presence of tens of thousands of Nato-led troops and billions of dollars in aid, the insurgents, driven out by the US invasion in 2001, now control “vast swaths of unchallenged territory, including rural areas, some district centres, and important road arteries,” the Senlis Council says in a report released today.

On the basis of what it calls exclusive research, it warns that the insurgency is also exercising a “significant amount of psychological control, gaining more and more political legitimacy in the minds of the Afghan people, who have a long history of shifting alliances and regime change”. [complete article]

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